From the three "No's" of the Khartoum Summit — "no to peace, no to recognition, no to negotiations" with Israel — in the wake of the loss in the 1967 war, to President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s acceptance of the Rogers Peace Initiative, the signing of the Camp David Accords, the Madrid Conference, and the Oslo Accords, to the Palestinian uprisings, the 2006 war, "Al-Aqsa Flood," and the "War of Steadfastness," up to the signing of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza two days ago, Arab positions and policies regarding peace with Israel have evolved, as has American policy.

And if Arab policies have led them to peace agreements under pressure and loss of land, American policy on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and the establishment of a Palestinian state has passed through several phases, in which U.S. support for Israel has increased year after year.

Strategic Alignment (1948 - 1967)

President Harry Truman’s recognition of Israel just 11 minutes after its proclamation set an early precedent, as it illustrated the effectiveness of Zionist lobbying. As Arab regimes drifted into the Soviet orbit, Israel became increasingly viewed as a reliable ally. A significant shift occurred during the 1956 Suez Crisis when President Eisenhower forced Israel, Britain, and France to withdraw from Sinai.

"Special Relationship" (1967 – 1991)

The 1967 War was a definitive turning point. Israel’s decisive victory demonstrated its military prowess and solidified its strategic value to the United States, which became its primary arms supplier and diplomatic shield. The UNSC Resolution 242, passed five months later, established the "land for peace" principle, becoming the cornerstone of all subsequent peace efforts.

In 1978, President Jimmy Carter brokered the historic Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt, removing the largest Arab army from the conflict and proving bilateral peace was possible. This solidified the U.S. role as the indispensable mediator.

The Reagan era further deepened the "strategic consensus" with Israel. While staunchly pro-Israel, Reagan also articulated support for a Palestinian homeland in federation with Jordan and opposed Israeli settlements.

Oslo Era, Collapse (1991 - 2000)

The post-Cold War era began with the Madrid Conference (1991), where President George H.W. Bush used U.S. leverage, including linking loan guarantees to Israel, to convene a historic multilateral peace conference. While the Clinton administration enthusiastically embraced the secret Israeli-PLO negotiations that produced the 1993 Oslo Accords, its policy was to shepherd a gradual peace process toward a final status agreement. This optimism was bolstered by the Israel-Jordan peace treaty in 1994. However, President Clinton’s intensive efforts to broker a final deal between Ehud Barak and Yasser Arafat in 2000 failed. The subsequent outbreak of the Second Intifada shattered the era's optimism, creating a deep-seated mutual distrust that persists today.

Unilateralism, Stalemate (2000 - 2016)

The post-9/11 "War on Terror" framework dominated U.S. policy. President George W. Bush became the first U.S. president to explicitly call for a Palestinian state but isolated Yasser Arafat, whom he viewed as compromised by terrorism. His administration supported Israel’s unilateral disengagement from Gaza in 2005.

President Barack Obama initially sought to re-energize the peace process, demanding a full settlement freeze and engaging directly with the Muslim world. However, his frequent clashes with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doomed these efforts. In a significant break from tradition, the Obama administration abstained from UNSC Resolution 2334 in 2016 condemning Israeli settlements, allowing it to pass.

Trump's Paradigm Shift (2017 - 2020)

The Trump administration broke from decades of bipartisan policy. It recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moved the U.S. embassy there, cut aid to the Palestinians, and recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Its "Peace to Prosperity" plan bypassed the Palestinians. It endorsed Israeli annexation of large settlement blocs and the Jordan Valley, proposing a demilitarized Palestinian state on a fragmented 70% of the West Bank, with Israel maintaining overriding security control. Statehood was made contingent on Palestinians meeting stringent conditions, including full demilitarization and recognizing Israel as a "Jewish state." The plan was rejected as a blueprint for a non-viable state.

Any End in Sight?

Resolving the conflict today is exceedingly difficult. The balance of power is overwhelmingly in Israel's favor, which is a regional military and economic powerhouse with unwavering American support. The Palestinians are politically divided between Fatah and Hamas, economically weak, and diplomatically isolated. A resolution would require a fundamental recalibration. The physical and political viability of a Palestinian state has been severely eroded by settlements. To save a two-state solution, settlement growth must be halted and potentially reversed—a move that is currently a political non-starter in Israel. Alternatively, a serious debate about a single, binational state with equal rights would have to begin, though this is anathema to both Israeli and Palestinian mainstream goals.

Any viable solution must still address the core issues: borders based on the 1967 lines with equitable land swaps; Jerusalem as a shared capital for two states; a just solution for refugees centered on return to a new Palestinian state, compensation, and resettlement, with only a symbolic number returning to Israel; and security arrangements that guarantee Israeli security while ending the military occupation of the life of the Palestinians.

Therefore, can the Gaza agreement form a foundation for a comprehensive solution?

The Arab states' rejection of the successive peace proposals offered to them since Israel's establishment in 1948 has contributed to creating a reality where each proposal offered less. Will the Palestinians, together with the Arabs this time, succeed in halting this cycle of retreat and achieving the long-awaited aspirations for the promised Palestinian state?