It appears that the Lebanese–Israeli scene is once again entering a decisive phase, after U.S. Middle East envoy Tom Barrack delivered what he described as a “final warning” to the Lebanese Army Command, giving it until the end of November to take a real and tangible step toward disarming "Hezbollah", or at least to change the existing reality on the ground in southern Lebanon. Although the U.S. messages were couched in diplomatic language laced with ambiguity, their leak to Israeli media gave them a distinctly warning tone—especially after Barrack hinted that Washington would “understand” any upcoming Israeli military action should Lebanon’s authorities fail to meet the deadline.

Washington Sets a Deadline, Tel Aviv Threatens

Notably, these developments coincided with the announcement by UNIFIL that it had observed more than one hundred Israeli military vehicles moving in southern Lebanon—an indication that a ground incursion into Lebanese territory may be imminent. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently chaired a security session devoted to monitoring Hezbollah’s reconstruction activities in the south. Intelligence reports presented during the meeting indicated that the group has been smuggling short-range missiles from Syria into Lebanon and rehabilitating its field bases damaged during previous airstrikes. Alongside Israel’s growing military escalation—through repeated drone strikes on "Hezbollah" positions in the South, the Bekaa, and the North—Washington has been sending mixed messages: support for the Lebanese Army on one hand, and a clear warning against hesitation in confronting "Hezbollah" on the other.

Between Israeli Deterrence and Lebanese Restraint

On the Israeli side, the military establishment does not conceal its concern over "Hezbollah"’s growing military capabilities despite the losses it suffered in recent months. Intelligence reports suggest that the group has partially succeeded in rebuilding its supply network, receiving arms shipments from Iran through Iraq and Syria, while smuggling operations continue despite the nominal efforts by Damascus and Beirut to curb them. In this context, Israeli warnings declared that no place in Lebanon will be safe if "Hezbollah" continues to rearm, while Defense Minister Israel Katz explicitly threatened that Beirut will be among the targets should the group keep playing with fire. Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated the same position, stating that Israel will not allow Lebanon to become a new front, a clear indication of Tel Aviv’s intent to keep escalation under control while maintaining its preemptive deterrence policy adopted earlier this year.

Beirut Between the Hammer and the Anvil

Conversely, official Lebanese statements reflect a careful attempt to balance international pressure with domestic stability—especially after President Joseph Aoun called for adopting dialogue and negotiation as the primary language, affirming that war is not an option and that Lebanon remains committed to the November 2024 agreement providing for lasting calm along the southern border. For his part, Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji stressed that the Lebanese government fully recognizes that diplomacy is the only path forward, reminding that the Taif Accord must be fully implemented, weapons confined to the state, and Lebanon kept neutral from regional power struggles as the sole path to stability.

A Warning on the Edge of Explosion

Tom Barrack’s deadline appears, at its core, to be the final test of Lebanon’s ability to seize internal initiative before the southern border turns into an open battlefield with unpredictable consequences. Should Beirut succeed in making tangible progress in curbing illegal arms and restoring state authority, it might manage to slow down the Israeli escalation—at least temporarily. But if it fails, then, according to the implicit U.S. threat, Washington will not oppose a limited Israeli war extending deep into southern Lebanon, a scenario that raises growing fears of the country once again sliding into chaos. This perhaps explains why, caught between the American deadline and the Israeli threat, Lebanon today seems trapped in the middle of a complex international equation—one in which it has neither the luxury of time nor the ability to maneuver indefinitely.