alsafa

Following the Israeli bombardment of Beirut's southern suburbs, the most intense since the November 27 ceasefire, it became clear that Israel had decided to move from the South to the North of the Litani River, in accordance with an equation announced by its Defense Minister, Yisrael Katz: "There will be no calm in Beirut, no order, nor stability in Lebanon without the security of Israel... and the Lebanese government must disarm “Hezbollah” and prevent it from producing drones that threaten Israeli citizens."

“Hezbollah”'s interpretation of the scope and context of the operation concludes that the Israeli plan, supported by the Americans, was and remains the complete elimination of “Hezbollah”'s presence, particularly on the military level. They have therefore begun to act as if the United States has "ruled" in their favor South of the Litani River and decided to take "decisive action" further to the North, believing that no regional or international climate would compel them to respect a ceasefire, which they have never respected. The Israelis therefore believe that the current regional and international climate serves their interests. They also benefit from the voices of certain Lebanese political factions urging the state to disarm “Hezbollah”, even before the Israeli withdrawal from the south and the return of prisoners. They believe that disarmament is the key to ending the Israeli occupation and resolving other internal crises.

“Hezbollah” also believes that the Israeli advance in Lebanon stems from the internal confusion felt by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over demands to dissolve the Knesset, which would remove him from power through early elections. He therefore rushed to fire up the situation, convinced that the continuation of the war grants him the necessary immunity to remain in power and further postpone his trial. Last week's raids in the southern suburbs were preceded by an active political mobilization by “Hezbollah”, during a meeting attended by the President of the Republic, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. At this meeting, the party defined the priorities of the current phase and created a space for positive interaction, which eased internal tensions. It also established a set of fixed rules, agreed upon with the authorities, recognizing in particular that the natural solution to the arms problem and the adoption of a national defense strategy requires the completion of the Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories and the release of prisoners. This does not mean, however, that the implementation of reforms and preparations for the reconstruction project should be postponed. It should be noted that the countries sponsoring the ceasefire agreement seemed unable, if not completely disinterested, in preventing the raids before they occurred. They issued no statements condemning them, with the sole exception of France. The Lebanese army had inspected the targeted sites before their bombing and could have confiscated any suspicious items. However, Israel persisted in bombing them, forcing the Lebanese army to withdraw under pressure from eight warning raids launched by its air force on these sites before its warplanes bombed and destroyed the sites and dozens of surrounding buildings. This suggests that Tel Aviv intended this bombing as an act of intimidation aimed at undermining the resolve of the Lebanese people, the "resistance," and its popular base. These raids were also part of US pressure on Lebanon to disarm before anything else, to the point that the US chairmanship of the ceasefire monitoring committee remained inactive.

This American position may have been meant to set the tone for Israel during the US-Iranian negotiations, as Israel has favored and continues to favor a military option against Iran, while Washington has so far favored a diplomatic approach. Washington may have wanted to prevent Israel from disrupting the negotiations by giving it the green light to act as it sees fit in Lebanon and perhaps even in Syria, thus distancing it from Iranian affairs. This explains the US veto in the Security Council of the recent draft resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza, the negotiations of which were led by Washington before it was submitted to the Security Council for a vote. “Hezbollah” therefore believes that the United States is covering up Israeli actions. Contacts had been made to prevent the raids on the southern suburbs before they took place. Had Washington opposed them, it would have prevented them, especially after the Lebanese army entered to the targeted areas and found neither precision missiles nor drones, which Israel had used as a pretext. “Hezbollah” also believes that the Americans treat the Lebanese army with little trust, or at least in a manner that does not address their stated concerns. Although UN Resolution 1701 provides for a mechanism to verify violations of the cessation of hostilities, including the verification of information provided by any party, Israel has attacked the Lebanese army in the southern suburbs, preventing it from completing its mission to inspect the sites bombed by the Israeli air force. In this regard, the US administration, which should be supporting the Lebanese authorities, released a response via Lebanese media, attributed to "American sources," to President Aoun's position, which condemned the raids and considered them "messages addressed to the United States, its policy, and its initiative." The US administration stated that "the Lebanese analysis is irrelevant, and Israel does not need to transmit messages to Washington via Beirut." The US response maintains that "the US administration is concerned by the positions of Lebanese officials and considers their statements extremely negative." The US State Department spokesperson then added: "The United States supports Israel's right to defend itself against “Hezbollah” and other terrorist organizations that advocate violence and oppose peace." »

France alone adopted a single position of condemnation and called on Israel to withdraw as quickly as possible, stressing that "France reaffirms that the monitoring mechanism provided for in the ceasefire agreement is in place to assist the parties and that the dismantling of unauthorized military positions on Lebanese territory is primarily the responsibility of the Lebanese armed forces, supported by UN forces."

Iran reacted through its spokesperson, Ismail Baqaei declaring that "the Israeli aggression against the southern suburbs of Beirut on the eve of Eid al-Adha constitutes a clear aggression against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon."

“Hezbollah” appears satisfied with the position of the three presidents and the army command regarding the events in the suburbs, but believes that this position must be accompanied by active diplomatic action so that Lebanon does not remain in a cycle of reaction and that it should demand that the countries sponsoring the ceasefire and the international community achieve a complete Israeli withdrawal.