Do wars have a significant impact on the GDP growth of nations? This question is addressed by the latest IMF (International Monetary Fund) report on the global economy for 2024. Depending on the geographical area, the "geopolitical climate" can significantly influence national economic conditions. The IMF has revised its growth forecasts for the two largest economies in the Eurozone, reducing them by 0.3 percentage points from January. It now projects growth of 0.2% for Berlin and 0.7% for Paris this year... a marginal difference. Thus, it remains uncertain whether Germany and France will enter a new recession.

With French growth rates below challenging levels, it's hard to believe in reduced unemployment or increased tax revenues that could help narrow France's budget deficit and fulfill government promises. Pierre Moscovici, the first president of France's Court of Auditors, voiced concerns in Le Figaro about the government's deficit forecasts, which he says "lack credibility"—a sharp and insightful criticism from Moscovici.

Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is rebounding. The strengthening relationship between Beijing and Moscow appears to be increasingly economically significant to the "Global South." Beijing announced a 5.3% GDP increase in the first quarter, a surprising turn following numerous concerns about the robustness of China's economy, often referred to as the "world’s factory." However, the Chinese economy still faces two significant structural challenges: weak household consumption and an aging population. Moreover, the dramatic downturn in its real estate sector, a cornerstone of its economic growth, weighs on China’s short-term economic future.

Then there is the Russian economy, which appears to be on a steady course. Transformed into a "war economy," the Russian production apparatus partially ensures the country's GDP growth. "Growth in Russia will be more robust than in all Western economies," states the International Monetary Fund in this report on the global economy, "including the United States." Russia's GDP is expected to increase by 3.2% in 2024, "significantly more than in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany"... In short, the Russian economy, which has morphed into a war economy since the invasion of Ukraine, defies the gravity of economic sanctions from Western countries and NATO members. This outcome had been anticipated by French economist Jacques Sapir.

French Finance Minister Bruno Lemaire predicted the collapse of the Russian economy a few months ago—a misjudgment, as this minister seems to have a troubled relationship with macroeconomic forecasting. He also failed to foresee the collapse of his country’s tax revenues and the profound depth of the fiscal deficit!