The village of Moura, Mali, has yet to regain its balance nearly three years after Russian mercenaries from Wagner Group and Malian soldiers massacred more than 300 civilians there in the name of fighting jihadists. ISIS flags now fly in neighboring hamlets. "Government soldiers and militias told us they would protect us," say residents, "we are now at the mercy of terrorists who have returned, and who are even worse than the soldiers."

This is the new African crisis: a crisis where state failure, climate disasters, and the cynical maneuvering of global powers combine to create fertile ground for terrorism. As ISIS loses ground in the Middle East, its African affiliates are multiplying, transforming the Sahel, West Africa, and the rare-mineral heartland of Congo into a future global battleground. The problem is not simply a situation of extremism. It is a geopolitical tragedy, fueled by foreign interventions that have spiraled out of control, the plundering of resources, and a generation of citizens abandoned by their governments.

Sahel: Clash Zone Between Foreign Powers, Jihadists

The Sahel, a sunbaked belt stretching across Africa, has become a graveyard of foreign ambitions. France's decade-long "War on Terror" collapsed in 2022, leaving behind resentment among the population and its civilian victims, and the feeling that France cared more about uranium mines than the lives of Malians. Stepping into this vacuum was the Russian Wagner Group, a shadowy mercenary army promising the Malian military junta swift victories against the jihadists. Instead, it left behind mass graves.

Wagner's scorched-earth policy—burning villages, labeling Peul tribe shepherds as "terrorists"—has backfired with spectacular effect. The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, or ISGS, now presents itself as the defender of marginalized communities. "The Russians are attacking us; the army is stealing our cattle. ISGS is giving us ‘justice’," says a herder in Burkina Faso, which has seen the exodus of two million people.

Meanwhile, the United States clings to an outdated counterterrorism strategy written for a past era. Niger, home to a $110 million US drone base, was once Washington's foothold in the Sahel. A coup in July 2023 overthrows a US-backed president. The new junta, courting Wagner, expels Western troops. A lesson can be learned: Militarization without governance breeds chaos.

West Africa: Nigerian Crisis, Threat Next Door

In Nigeria, Africa's sleeping giant, the government appears to have virtually surrendered the northeast to ISIS and its local affiliates. Nearly 15 years after the start of the Boko Haram insurgency in 2009, three million people in the northern Borno State rely on UN food aid. Schools are in ruins. It is into this vacuum that ISIS is expanding across West Africa and running a shadow government, taxing farmers and resolving land disputes.

But the real danger lies in the south. Jihadists are now striking less than 96 kilometers from the coast of Benin, where sophisticated ports handle 80% of West African trade. France, still scalded by its colonial past, is hesitant to intervene. Coastal countries like Ghana and the Ivory Coast are left to their own fates. Western diplomats in West Africa warn that if Lagos or Abidjan are hit, global shipping and cocoa markets will experience crises.

China, Africa's largest trading partner, is watching the situation cautiously. Its Belt and Road Initiative built Nigeria's railways, but has avoided conflict zones. This commercial pragmatism could be short-sighted.

Central Africa: Bloody Minerals, Climate Trap

In the jungles of eastern Congo, ISIS thrives in the deadliest way due to the global addiction to technology. The “Allied Democratic Forces,” an extremist Islamic group, are fighting the government in the east of the country. They have renamed themselves ISIS-DRC and finance their "terrorist" reign through illegal gold mining. A UN report traced the gold to Dubai refineries, then to Chinese and Indian markets, where it is manufactured into jewelry or microcircuits for the technology industry. When Ugandan and American military campaigns are organized, local ISIS armed gangs hide among the local populations to avoid being targeted.

Climate change amplifies the disaster. In Nigeria and Mali, prolonged droughts pit farmers against herders, creating pools of angry and unemployed youth. In the Congo, deforestation is pushing desperate communities into the orbit of ISIS-DRC. Local populations complain that governments are sending soldiers to kill them instead of providing them with food and money.

Global Apathy, Local Disasters

Never has the global community reacted as it should, as if rejecting victory. Russia vetoed UN sanctions against the Malian junta while arming Wagner. China, in turn, blocked resolutions condemning mineral smuggling in the Congo. The United States has already cut aid to Niger after the coup, driving it into Moscow's embrace. And Europe, obsessed with fears of migration flows, funds dictatorships to stop the death boats instead of addressing the root causes of the problem.

But the risks are beyond the grasp of policymakers. Africa's population will double by 2050, 80% of which will be under 35. If faced with unemployment and repression, these young people will become the recruiting ground for new ISIS fighters.

Weathering Storm?

Solutions exist, but they require accepting some sobering truths:

- A first step is to impose sanctions against buyers of minerals that fuel conflict, from Dubai's gold markets to Chinese technology companies.

- A second step is to reconsider the fight against terrorism and stop using international mercenaries to wage wars. The most important thing is to invest in community policing and schools, not in drones and war machines.

- The third step would be to finance solar farms instead of allocating large budgets to fund armies. The herdsmen of the Sahel region would not join Daesh if they had solar-powered water pumps. With the Sahel ablaze, a warning is echoing from Mali to Mozambique: African crises can no longer be contained. The global community's negligence has allowed ISIS to build a new caliphate, not in desert caves, but on the ruins of failed states. The time for half-measures is over. Failure here means the fire will spread.