Within the complex geopolitical web, the international landscape appears deeply interconnected. While the crises in Ukraine, Gaza, Venezuela, and Sudan may seem geographically distant and separate hotspots, a deeper look reveals they are interconnected nodes in a single geopolitical net. This entanglement is no coincidence; it expresses a structural shift in the international system from unipolar hegemony to multi-polar competition, and reveals a world emptied of grand ideas, now moved solely by interests.

Ukraine: The Hottest Front in the New Cold War

The war in Ukraine has transcended the character of a bilateral or regional conflict to become the direct confrontation arena between the West, led by the United States, and Russia, which seeks to redraw the boundaries of influence in Eastern Europe. Yet, this conflict is also a manifestation of international rivalry between the United States and China. So far, China has succeeded in repelling American attempts at penetration or circumvention.

In this war, the Russian and Ukrainian positions remain rigid: Kyiv refuses any concession on its territories, and Moscow insists on recognition of its field gains as a condition for any negotiation.

Here, the failure of recent American proposals is obvious, namely the initial plan proposed by President Donald Trump, which was later reintroduced in a modified version, to break this deadlock. The idea of a " fighting freeze" based on the current status quo was rejected by Ukraine, which sees it as legitimizing occupation, and by European allies who consider it a surrender to the principle of "might makes right." Even Russia found reasons to reject it, although it leans in its favor.

Strategic Intertwining: Iran as a Connecting Link

Iran emerges as a stark example of how middle powers can benefit from multiple conflicts to enhance their influence. Iran supported Russia in Ukraine by supplying it with drones and assisting in cyberattacks. It allied with groups in Gaza, strengthened its relations with Venezuela, and has become a player on three geographically distant but strategically close fronts. This pattern of "multi-proxy wars" represents a challenge to the traditional Western model of crisis management.

Energy, Gold, Rare Minerals: Crises Link

The dynamics of these conflicts cannot be understood in isolation from the global geography of energy and rare minerals. Venezuela, which holds the largest oil reserves, represents a pressure card in the hands of Russia and China against Western sanctions. Ukraine remains a vital corridor for exporting Russian gas to Europe. Gaza lies at the heart of a region that determines the security of global energy supplies. As for Sudan, it is rich in old and various precious and rare minerals that impact the economy and technology, and also rich in agricultural lands that qualify it to be Africa's food basket. Any disturbance in one of these issues sends shockwaves through the global economy and energy markets, creating mutual economic and political pressures across continents.

Quick Fixes Failure: Power Humility Lesson

The experience of ceasefire proposals in Ukraine offers a crucial lesson: in a multi-polar world, a single superpower is no longer able to easily impose its solutions. The rejection by Ukraine and its European allies – NATO members – of the American plan proposing a freeze in fighting on current lines and linking aid to progress in negotiations shows that the United States' traditional allies have become more independent in assessing their security interests; that principles like sovereignty and territorial integrity still take priority even in the face of the temptations of a temporary ceasefire; and that regional solidarity – European in this case – can form a counterforce to American pressures.

Domestic Repercussions

The Trump administration's failure to achieve breakthroughs in these issues leaves complex internal repercussions, especially in the context of acute political polarization. President Trump's inability to achieve "big deals" weakens the narrative of the "great dealmaker." But Trump is adept at blaming others, such as allies, the bureaucracy, or political opponents.

This failure provides ammunition for Trump's domestic opponents to criticize the effectiveness and competence of his foreign policy and increases voters' skepticism about any administration's ability to solve the world's complexities alone. This may push towards more isolationism or towards a push for greater international cooperation.

In other words, the failure of quick solutions may serve an internal political discourse that adopts the "America First" slogan as a reaction to the world's complexities and the ingratitude of allies, or it may serve the opposite logic that blames "America First" for abandoning traditional allies.

Look at the outlook?

The first conclusion is that it is no longer possible to treat any crisis as a separate entity. Resolving the conflict in Ukraine is linked to global energy balances affected by Venezuela and the Middle East, including Sudan.

The second conclusion is the rise of middle powers and the non-state actors linked to them, such as Iran, armed groups, mercenary companies, and others, all of whom benefit from the preoccupation of major powers on multiple fronts to enhance their influence.

The third conclusion is the transformation of the concept of power. Military and economic power are no longer sufficient to impose solutions. Soft power, the ability to build flexible alliances, and understanding the complexities of local contexts have become decisive factors.

The fourth conclusion is that traditional alliances like NATO and Euro-American relations face pressures to redefine themselves in a world where the United States is no longer its sole leader or even willing to lead without exacting a price.

The fifth conclusion is that the focus on unilateral solutions or big deals comes at the expense of multilateral diplomacy and cumulative small steps that may be more realistic.

In the final analysis, President Trump stands at a crossroads, especially since he is not eligible to run for president again. He wins if he manages to complete those quick deals. If so, he will be able to enable Republicans to retain both congressional majorities and the next presidency. However, he is the first to be affected by failure, as the groups that currently support him will abandon him when they see that his economic policy has failed and his international pressures have fallen short. Therefore, it is not unlikely that he might launch a war because he needs an achievement, and this war could be in the United States' backyard, with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro paying the price for the benefit of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.

In any case, there are reports that Maduro is already in Moscow.